Forecast 2015

What will 2015 hold for the convenience store industry? Will the overall U.S. economic climate be a boost or a burden for c-store operators? Which product categories will be the standouts in sales and profitability, and which will fall flat? Are c-store retailers optimistic or pessimistic about the new year? How will legislative and regulatory issues impact business?

These are just some of the questions Convenience Store News set out to answer with its 13th annual Industry Forecast Study, which has been significantly expanded this year to deliver more forward-looking insights than ever before to help c-store players mobilize for 2015.

As in past years, the exclusive CSNews Industry Forecast Study provides dollar and unit volume projections in key c-store product categories based on data from various sources, including Nielsen for category sales history; TDLinx for store counts; and government sources for motor fuel volume and pricing data. The data is then run through a sophisticated projection model and presented here in summary form. CSNews’ consulting economist Maureen Maguire, founder and CEO of New York-based ThinkResearch, oversees the Forecast Study process.

Along with the individual forecasts for the product categories of most importance to c-store retailers, the CSNews Forecast Study also provides an overall U.S. economic outlook.

This year, however, the study doesn’t stop there.

For the first time, CSNews conducted a survey among convenience retailers to get their forecast for 2015. The survey, fielded in November, asked retailers to predict results for their average store sales this year in major categories and to provide reasons for their answers. They were also asked to rate issues that are expected to have a major impact on the industry, and share initiatives they intend to implement during the year to increase sales and profitability.

A total of 102 retailers participated in the survey. By company size, 26.3 percent were single-store operators; 25.2 percent represent chains with two to 10 stores; 16.2 percent have 11 to 50 stores; 10.1 percent have 51 to 200 stores; and 22.2 percent are from chains with more than 200 stores. By region, 32.4 percent are headquartered in the South, 30.4 percent are from the Midwest, 23.5 percent are in the Northeast and 13.7 percent hail from the West.

Taking the retailer survey a step further, CSNews also interviewed the CEOs of two of the top retailer companies in the c-store industry — Chris Gheysens of Pennsylvania-based Wawa Inc. and Sonja Hubbard of Texas-based E-Z Mart Stores Inc. — to get their views on the coming year, from sales and profits to trends and the economy. The chief executives revealed some of their business strategies for the new year as well.

Finally, this year’s CSNews Forecast Study concludes with an outlook on what convenience retailers should expect in regards to the federal legislative landscape in 2015, as well as the regulatory environment. Not surprisingly, the retailers responding to CSNews’ survey put both these entities at the top of their list of issues expected to have a major impact.

Read on to find out what 2015 has in store for you. It’s going to be an exciting year!

Convenience retailers are optimistic about the year ahead, but there are still hurdles to overcome