Thanksgiving Traditions Persist Despite Inflation
NATIONAL REPORT — While the inflation rate for Thanksgiving essentials has slowed to an increase of 2%, consumers may not notice due to the 26% increase in prices since 2020, according to Circana's annual "Thanksgiving Outlook."
As such, this year's analysis highlights the enduring popularity of Thanksgiving traditions. Seventy-nine percent of consumers report they and their families will celebrate Thanksgiving with the usual traditions, while 34% of consumers anticipate spending more on groceries this year but are unlikely to cut back on their purchases.
When it comes to where consumers plans to celebrate, 61% of Americans plan to eat their main Thanksgiving meal at home — a slight decline from previous years. When it comes to how consumers plan to celebrate, Generation Z and young millennials anticipate an average guest count of 10.6, exceeding the smaller group sizes of older generations.
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"Thanksgiving offers a unique opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to connect with consumers who are navigating high prices while still prioritizing cherished traditions," said Joan Driggs, vice president, Content and Thought Leadership, Circana. "By focusing on solutions that blend convenience, value and creativity, businesses can help shoppers celebrate in meaningful ways — whether through promotions on staple items, inspiration for new traditions, or offerings that make hosting and gifting easier."
Thanksgiving remains one of the biggest food holidays of the year, generating a $2.4 billion lift in sales in 2023, second only to Christmas. Circana anticipates the continuation of several important trends for 2024, including:
- 82% of the total sales increase during the Thanksgiving season happened in the week of Thanksgiving and the week prior.
- The Thanksgiving basket, comprising 31 key categories, drove this sales uplift, despite representing only 9% of total sales for those weeks in 2023.
- The percentage of sales sold on promotion for last year's Thanksgiving basket almost doubled to 50%, but the average depth of discount was similar to the rest of the year.
- 8% of Thanksgiving meal occasions had an item sourced from a restaurant or foodservice establishment.
Chicago-based Circana is a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. Through technology, advanced analytics, cross-industry data and deep expertise, the firm provides clarity that helps almost 7,000 of the world's leading brands and retailers take action and unlock business growth.
Gobbling Up Budgets
According to the latest LendingTree survey of nearly 2,050 U.S. consumers, potential Thanksgiving hosts plan to spend an average of $431 on Thanksgiving food, drinks and decor — up 19% from last year. More than a third (36%) admit doing so is a financial strain, which may put some in debt.
Other topline findings from the survey include:
Hosting a Thanksgiving meal can cost you.
More than half (56%) of Americans may host guests for Thanksgiving this year, spending an average of $431 on food, drinks and decor, up 19% from last year. Six-figure earners ($579), men ($496) and parents with young children ($493) expect to spend the most on average.
Inflation is leading some to change their Turkey Day plans.
Sixty percent of celebrators say inflation is impacting their Thanksgiving. Most commonly, 27% will change food choices, 26% will coupon more and 9% won't host due to costs. Given the cost, 35% of potential hosts may reconsider opening up their homes next year.
Bellies are full of turkey and stuffing, but some are full of regret.
More than a third (36%) of potential hosts admit the amount they plan to spend on Thanksgiving will be a financial strain, and 14% already regret their decision to host. Thirty-four percent of potential hosts will use their credit cards to pay Thanksgiving costs.
Guests should plan to come with gifts, or they may not receive an invite next year.
Six in 10 potential hosts expect their guests to offer money or an item to offset expenses, and 25% say they may reconsider an invitation next year if a guest arrives empty-handed. However, the majority of those attending a celebration elsewhere plan to contribute to the spread, most notably with side dishes (63%) and desserts (32%).
Headquartered in Charlotte, LendingTree is a leading online loan marketplace, empowering consumers as they comparison-shop across a full suite of loan and credit-based offerings.